Tennessee vs. Alabama, Gonzaga vs. St. Mary’s predictions: College hoops odds

Five ranked matchups dot the college basketball landscape Saturday, stretching from noon Eastern to a late-night tip-off in the Bay Area. 

These Top-25 showdowns promise to deliver March Madness vibes while introducing casual fans to players who will be household names by the end of the month. 

Here are two games I have my eyes on from a betting perspective: 

No. 4 Tennessee at No. 14 Alabama

The top two teams in the SEC standings will face off at Coleman Coliseum in what should be an offensive showcase. 

Tennessee has one of the nation’s most dynamic scorers in Dalton Knecht.

The Northern Colorado transfer has exceeded expectations to such a degree that he’s a lock to be named a Wooden Award finalist.

He’s averaging more than 26 points per game in the past seven weeks and is coming off of a monstrous 39-point eruption against Auburn. 

Knecht’s backcourt running mate, Zakai Zeigler, also elevated his game in February.

The veteran point guard averaged nearly 15 points and eight assists per contest while getting to the line more often than he did in the first three months of the season (+70% increase in FTA). 

Alabama doesn’t have a superstar soloist on Knecht’s level, but as a team, the Crimson Tide have risen to the top of the offensive charts.

Nate Oats’ offense is top-rated by KenPom and second nationally, according to Torvik, Evan Miya and Haslametrics. 

Pouring in 91.5 points per game, the Tide overwhelms opponents from long range (11.6 3-pointers made, first) and crashes the offensive glass with reckless abandon (11.1 offensive rebounds, 21st).

Toss in its preferred breakneck pace (ninth) and you begin to understand why Alabama has cashed seven straight overs. 

Even more impressive than that streak is the fact that it has bested the closing total by an average of 21.5 points per game. Talk about sweat-free winners. 

As an added bonus, both Tennessee and Alabama are nails from the line (UT 74.7%, UA 79.1%). 

My projections call for this game to be played in the low 90s, which indicates there is value in playing this over all the way up into the mid-170s. 

Recommendation: Over 167.5 total points. 

No. 23 Gonzaga at No. 17 St. Mary’s

In more than a quarter century, the Zags haven’t been a true underdog in the WCC, both in the market and in terms of public perception.

That’s how impressive their run has been in this conference. 

You have to go all the way back to 1996 to find a season in which they didn’t finish first or second in the league.

Yet the Bulldogs head down to the Bay Area looking for revenge against a Gaels team that beat them on their home floor for just the fifth time in the past 33 years. 

Betting on College Basketball?

St. Mary’s, 15-0 in the WCC, has been cruising since Christmas, winning 16 straight. All but five of those wins came by 11 or more points.

However, the Gaels are beginning to leak a bit of oil due to injuries. 

Forward Joshua Jefferson has opted for knee surgery, ending his season. Harry Wessels, another SMC big, is dealing with an arm injury. His status is up in the air for Saturday night. 

This is great news for Bulldog backers because forward Graham Ike has a much higher ceiling facing a depleted Gael frontcourt.

In their previous meeting, with Jefferson and Wessels available, he shot just 4-of-10 from the field and was saddled with four fouls. 

Gonzaga still hung around for 40 minutes, falling by just two points. I expect big things from Ike here and for the Bulldogs to flirt with the outright road upset. 

Recommendation: Gonzaga +2.5. 

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March 2, 2024 8:00 pm